分布式储能盈利模式向多元化演进

Core Insights - The distributed energy storage sector in China is expected to experience significant growth, with installed capacity projected to increase from 570 MW in 2019 to 3,638 MW by the third quarter of 2025, representing over a fivefold increase [1] - The development of distributed energy storage is accelerating due to declining construction and operational costs, extensive development of distributed energy, and supportive policies [1][2] - Despite rapid growth, challenges such as limited application scenarios, imperfect market mechanisms, and immature business models hinder the large-scale development of distributed energy storage [1][4] Industry Trends - Distributed energy storage is transitioning from demonstration projects to large-scale applications, becoming a crucial element in energy transition and enhancing grid flexibility [2] - The six major application scenarios for distributed energy storage include industrial and commercial energy storage, distributed photovoltaic energy storage, green electricity direct connection, area storage, virtual power plants, and charging and swapping stations [2] - Industrial and commercial energy storage is the most mature application scenario, accounting for 68.7% of the cumulative installed capacity by September 2025 [2] Policy and Market Dynamics - Recent green electricity direct connection projects are vital for improving renewable energy consumption efficiency and reducing electricity costs [3] - The commercial model for distributed energy storage is still in the exploratory phase, facing challenges such as insufficient policy continuity and a lack of diverse revenue sources [4] - The profitability of industrial and commercial energy storage largely depends on peak and valley price differences, with regions like Zhejiang and Guangdong benefiting from higher price differentials [4] Future Outlook - The commercial viability of distributed energy storage is expected to improve with clearer market mechanisms and ongoing technological advancements that will lower storage costs [5] - Policies such as the 2024 guidelines for electricity market operations and various local initiatives are laying the groundwork for the high-quality development of distributed energy storage [5] - The revenue model is anticipated to evolve from a single price arbitrage approach to a more interactive model that includes market trading and auxiliary services [6] Recommendations - The report suggests that in the industrial and commercial energy storage scenario, short-term revenue can be generated through fixed peak and valley price differences, while long-term strategies should focus on dynamic pricing and capacity fee reductions [7] - For green electricity direct connection projects, short-term savings can be achieved through self-consumption, while long-term strategies should involve participation in grid balancing and exploring carbon reduction benefits [7] - Recommendations for other scenarios include enhancing fiscal and tax support, encouraging technological innovation, and improving mechanisms for market participation [7]