AI正改变利率预期？交易员押注美联储明年仍将降息，而非加息

Group 1 - Traders in the U.S. futures and options markets are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates next year rather than raise them [1] - The SOFR futures spread, which reflects Fed policy expectations, is showing a deep inversion, indicating that traders are pricing in a prolonged period of central bank easing [1][6] - Recent discussions around the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market are prompting traders to reassess their outlook on interest rates [4][5] Group 2 - The SOFR spread between December 2026 and December 2027 turned negative last week, with the inversion widening to -8 basis points, signaling a shift from pricing in rate hikes to rate cuts [6] - The trading volume for the 12-month SOFR spread reached a record high of over 150,000 contracts during Monday's trading session [6] - In the SOFR options market, there is a notable increase in hedging trades betting on multiple rate cuts this year, with open interest for call options expiring in December surging to over 400,000 contracts [7] Group 3 - Market participants are re-evaluating lower yield expectations after the Fed reaches its terminal rate, driven by uncertainties regarding AI's impact on the labor market [8] - The current pricing in the interest rate swap market suggests a Fed rate of about 3.1% by year-end, which is approximately 110 basis points higher than the implied level of the related options strike price [7]