光大期货：2月25日软商品日报

Sugar Industry - As of February 15, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume reached 63.4728 million tons, a decrease of 4.4602 million tons or 6.57% compared to the same period last year [5] - The sugar content in sugarcane was 12.53%, an increase of 0.16% from 12.37% last year [5] - The sugar production rate was 10.77%, up by 0.197% from 10.573% last year, with total sugar production at 6.8356 million tons, down by 346,700 tons or 4.83% year-on-year [5] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,290 to 5,400 CNY/ton, while in Yunnan, prices are between 5,120 and 5,180 CNY/ton, with processing plants quoting between 5,580 and 5,800 CNY/ton, showing stability [5] - The raw sugar market is supported by U.S. tariff issues, leading to strong futures prices, but future price increases may be limited due to expected high production levels in the Northern Hemisphere and Brazil [5] - Domestic sugar factories are in a peak inventory accumulation period during the off-season for consumption, leading to a lack of market drivers and a forecast of continued fluctuations [5] Cotton Industry - On Tuesday, ICE cotton rose by 0.55%, closing at 65.5 cents per pound, while the main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 3.8% to 15,285 CNY/ton, with open interest rising by 92,446 contracts to 759,400 contracts [6] - The cotton price index for 3128B was 16,205 CNY/ton, up by 415 CNY/ton from the previous day [6] - The increase in Zheng cotton prices is driven by several factors, including a more than 2% rise in ICE cotton prices during the domestic spring holiday, and USDA's February agricultural outlook indicating a year-on-year decline in cotton stock-to-use ratios for 2026/27 in major producing countries [6] - Domestic planting area reductions and expectations for target price policy adjustments are becoming clearer as new cotton planting is expected to begin in about a month [6] - Overall, the correlation between domestic and international cotton prices may strengthen, with limited short-term single-direction trends but potential upward space for prices in the medium to long term [6]