资源属性凸显，供给脆弱下价格中枢有望稳步抬升

Core Insights - The definition of "critical minerals" refers to non-fuel minerals or materials that are essential for national economic and security, and whose supply chains are vulnerable to disruption. In China, these are often referred to as "strategic minerals," which play a significant role in ensuring economic security, national defense, and the sustainable development of strategic emerging industries. The U.S. Geological Survey is set to release an updated list of critical minerals in November 2025, increasing the total from 50 to 60 minerals [2]. Group 1: Importance of Critical Minerals - Research on critical minerals is crucial as China can leverage its export restriction policies on strategic minerals to counter Western nations. China holds significant advantages in various rare metals, such as tungsten (82.7% of global supply) and rare earths (69.2% of global supply), and controls a large portion of the smelting capacity for these minerals, with approximately 90% of global rare earth smelting occurring in China [3]. - The U.S. plans to create market conditions for mineral resource security through high tariffs. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, 12 critical minerals are entirely reliant on imports, and 29 have an import dependency exceeding 50%. The U.S. imports at least 29 types of minerals from China, highlighting the vulnerability of its supply chain [3]. - Geopolitical risks are increasing, leading resource-exporting countries to tighten their resource policies. Countries that control critical minerals are using policy tools to strengthen their control over supply, effectively competing for pricing dominance in the global market. For instance, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which accounts for 76% of global cobalt production, plans to implement a long-term export ban on cobalt starting in 2025 [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Opportunities - Capital is increasingly flowing into the critical minerals sector, demonstrating a significant attraction effect. Amid macroeconomic uncertainties, the capital market is enhancing its allocation to critical minerals, reflecting a deep commitment to the strategic value and resource security logic of these minerals [3]. - A systematic review of 16 critical mineral varieties indicates that most have supply vulnerabilities, with core supplies concentrated in a few countries, making them susceptible to geopolitical risks. In a tight supply-demand balance, any supply disruptions can lead to rapid price reactions [4]. - The focus on critical minerals is growing among many countries due to concerns over supply chain security. In this context, the resource attributes of critical minerals are expected to become more pronounced, making prices likely to rise and difficult to fall. Companies that control critical minerals should be prioritized for investment [4].