国际能源署发布报告显示：全球市场石油供应短期承压

Core Insights - The International Energy Agency's February report indicates a significant decline in global oil supply due to geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and reduced exports from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela, with January supply dropping by 1.2 million barrels per day to 106.6 million barrels per day [1] - Brent crude oil prices have recently surpassed $70 per barrel, reaching the highest level since September 2025, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S. [1] Group 1: Supply Disruptions - Multiple supply disruptions from oil-producing countries have tightened the spot oil market, further driving up prices [2] - Russian oil supply fell by 350,000 barrels per day in January, with Indian imports dropping to 1.1 million barrels per day, the lowest since November 2022 [2] - Venezuela's oil production decreased by 210,000 barrels per day to 780,000 barrels per day, but is expected to rebound following U.S. authorization for exports [2] - Extreme cold weather in North America led to over 1 million barrels per day of production capacity being shut down [2] Group 2: Refining and Inventory Trends - Global refinery crude processing declined from a record 86.3 million barrels per day in December to 85.7 million barrels per day in January due to seasonal maintenance and declining refining margins [3] - Global oil inventories increased by 37 million barrels in December, reaching a total of 477 million barrels, with OECD inventories also rising above the five-year average for the first time since 2021 [3] Group 3: Future Projections - The report forecasts a strong rebound in global oil supply in 2026, with demand expected to grow by 850,000 barrels per day, primarily driven by non-OECD economies [4] - Global oil production is projected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.6 million barrels per day, with contributions from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries [4] - Global crude processing is expected to average an increase of 790,000 barrels per day, driven mainly by non-OECD member countries [4] Group 4: Demand Adjustments - Due to economic uncertainties and rising oil prices, the demand growth forecast for 2026 has been slightly adjusted down to 850,000 barrels per day, with China remaining the largest contributor [5] - Global oil inventories reached a historical high of 477 million barrels by December 2025, as supply continues to exceed demand [5]