长城基金杨维维：存储板块景气高企，持续性或超预期

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is currently experiencing a strong performance driven by multiple factors, including the demand from AI technologies and the ongoing push for domestic substitution in China [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor industry is benefiting from AI's influence, with sectors such as GPU, CPU, ASIC, storage, and advanced processes directly gaining, while supporting equipment, materials, components, and packaging are benefiting indirectly [1][6]. - The current state of the semiconductor industry is not aligned with traditional macroeconomic frameworks, as it is more influenced by AI demand and the deepening of domestic substitution [2][7]. Group 2: Market Conditions - The storage segment is at a relative high point in terms of industry prosperity, with potential for continued unexpected growth, while consumer chip segments like SOC and analog chips are at low points [2][7]. - The Chinese semiconductor industry is in an early stage of benefiting from AI, indicating significant growth potential across the entire industry chain [2][7]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Key investment areas include domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, materials, and components benefiting from the expansion of domestic wafer fabs, as well as military semiconductors [3][8]. - The expansion of wafer fabs is driven by AI's demand for advanced processes, storage shortages, and the "China for China" outsourcing needs, suggesting upward potential for related equipment, materials, and components [3][8]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The core investment strategy focuses on "odds + industry trends + selective stocks," aiming to identify high-potential stocks within major industry trends such as AI and domestic substitution [4][9]. - The strategy emphasizes quantitative assessment of growth potential based on the understanding of industry trends and individual stocks, with a preference for positioning before market turning points [4][9]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The overall trend for the semiconductor industry is expected to be upward, although the sector's valuation is currently considered high following significant increases since September 2024 [10]. - The primary risk in the sector is liquidity risk, which is crucial for supporting high valuations, and investors are advised to adopt a long-term perspective based on the high potential and long cycle of China's semiconductor industry [10].