华泰期货：郑棉强势上涨，白糖延续震荡

Cotton Market Insights - The cotton futures contract closed at 15,285 CNY/ton, an increase of 545 CNY/ton or 3.70% from the previous day [2][14] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,789 CNY/ton, down by 31 CNY/ton, while the national average was 16,070 CNY/ton, down by 18 CNY/ton [2][14] - The USDA report forecasts a global cotton production of 25.26 million tons for the 2026/27 season, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, with consumption expected to rise by 1.2% to 26.15 million tons [3][15] Market Analysis - The cotton market is expected to tighten due to reduced global supply and increased demand, with the USDA's outlook being optimistic [3][15] - Domestic textile markets are anticipated to gradually recover as operations resume, contributing to higher cotton consumption [3][15] - The planting area for Xinjiang cotton is projected to decrease, which may lead to a long-term upward shift in cotton prices [4][15] Strategy - The market outlook is neutral, with expectations of a strong performance in the cotton market during the traditional peak season, although short-term price increases may face pressure from price differentials [5][16] Sugar Market Insights - The sugar futures contract closed at 5,229 CNY/ton, an increase of 18 CNY/ton or 0.35% from the previous day [6][17] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected to decrease by 4.83% year-on-year, with a total sugar production of 683.56 million tons [6][17] Market Analysis - The sugar market is currently experiencing a surplus, which is expected to continue to suppress prices in the short to medium term [7][18] - Domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but sales data indicates lower-than-expected pre-holiday stockpiling [7][18] Strategy - The outlook for sugar is neutral, with attention needed on domestic production pressures and potential changes in import policies [8][19] Pulp Market Insights - The pulp futures contract closed at 5,340 CNY/ton, an increase of 80 CNY/ton or 1.52% from the previous day [9][20] - The market for imported wood pulp is showing signs of strength, although actual trading activity remains limited [10][21] Market Analysis - Global wood pulp supply pressures are expected to ease due to reduced new capacity and production cuts from major suppliers [11][22] - Despite an increase in paper production capacity, demand remains weak, leading to high inventory levels at domestic ports [11][22] Strategy - The market outlook for pulp is neutral, with prices likely to remain stable in the short term due to high inventory levels [12][22]