不锈钢：盘面震荡偏强 交易逻辑不改供需缓慢修复

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors and raw material prices, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics [3] Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices are showing strong support at the bottom, with Indonesian nickel ore premiums rising to $32-35 per wet ton, and CIF prices for nickel at 1.4% from the Philippines increasing to $63 per wet ton [1] - High nickel pig iron prices are reported to be around 1100 yuan per nickel (including tax), indicating a rising trend in market quotes [1][3] Supply - Domestic stainless steel production is projected to reach 3.426 million tons in January 2026, a month-on-month increase of 165,500 tons (5.08%) and a year-on-year increase of 248,300 tons [1] - February's stainless steel crude steel output is expected to be 2.651 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 226,200 tons (12.49%) [1] - Some steel mills are increasing production cuts, with certain mills undergoing maintenance [1] Inventory - Social inventory is accumulating, with a reported increase in warehouse receipts. As of February 13, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan reached 470,300 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,700 tons [2] - As of February 24, stainless steel futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 60,810 tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,287 tons [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is maintaining a strong oscillation, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and raw material prices. The introduction of a 10% global tariff by the U.S. is a key factor to monitor [3] - Demand is insufficient to support high price increases, with traditional and emerging sectors showing divergence and procurement slowing down due to financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - Overall, the market is expected to experience slow recovery in supply and demand, with ongoing cost and demand negotiations [3]