美指震荡上行逼近四周高位

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the US dollar index is experiencing a short-term upward trend, influenced by the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, changes in US tariff policies, and global risk aversion sentiment [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have cooled, with the January meeting minutes reinforcing a "wait and see" signal, and the inflation target of 2% being a key factor for any potential rate cuts [1] - The recent Supreme Court ruling regarding tariffs may lead to a reduction in tariffs by 5 percentage points and a potential tax refund of $175 billion, although former President Trump has indicated plans to maintain existing tariffs, which creates policy uncertainty and boosts demand for the dollar as a safe-haven asset [1] Group 2 - Technically, the dollar index has shown a rebound from 95.56 to 97.95 since mid-February, with short-term support at 97.80 and resistance around 98.00-98.05, although it remains in a long-term downtrend with targets around 80-85 [2] - The outlook for the dollar remains strong in the short term, influenced by Federal Reserve policies, tariff implementations, and inflation data, but long-term pressures from fiscal deficits, interest rate cut cycles, trade deficits, and de-dollarization persist [2] - Investors are advised to monitor inflation, official statements, and tariff developments closely, as these factors could lead to potential pullback risks [2]