聚乙烯：步入深度调整期

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polyethylene market in China is expected to reach a significant milestone in 2026, with total production capacity surpassing 45 million tons, leading to a shift from scale expansion competition to value enhancement competition, indicating a structural adjustment in the industry [1] Group 1: Capacity Growth and Structure - New polyethylene production capacity in China is projected to reach between 6.15 million to 7.29 million tons in 2026, with a growth rate of 15% to 18.5% [2] - The production capacity will be primarily driven by oil-based facilities, with major contributions from large refining and chemical enterprises like Huajin Amoco and Zhongsha Gulei, alongside a significant increase in coal-based production [2] - The product structure is showing an optimization trend, with the planned production capacity for high-density polyethylene (HDPE) at 2.05 million tons and linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) growth slowing to an estimated 4% in 2026, down from 24% in 2025 [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The polyethylene industry is expected to experience ongoing adjustments in supply and demand, characterized by a phase of seeking balance and rapid price fluctuations [3] - The first half of 2026 will see limited new capacity release, while the second half will face market pressure as capacity expansion comes online [3] Group 3: Cost Trends and Profitability - There will be significant differentiation in cost structures, leading to widening profitability gaps among companies based on their production processes [4] - Oil-based polyethylene, which constitutes nearly two-thirds of total capacity, will face profit pressures due to high crude oil prices and declining polyethylene spot prices [4] - Coal-based polyethylene, accounting for about 20% of total capacity, is expected to benefit from a moderate decline in coal prices, maintaining a specific profitability level [4] Group 4: Domestic Demand and Export Challenges - Domestic apparent consumption of polyethylene is projected to reach approximately 41.5 million tons in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, which is still lower than the growth rate of production capacity [5] - Traditional demand sectors such as packaging films and pipes are experiencing slow growth, while new industries like photovoltaic backsheet films and lithium battery separators are expanding, albeit still representing a small portion of overall consumption [6] - The export of polyethylene from China has seen a compound annual growth rate of 34.5% over the past five years, with expectations for steady growth in 2026, particularly in Southeast Asia [6]