【春节专题】春节期间海外天然橡胶市场回顾

Core Viewpoint - During the Spring Festival holiday, natural rubber futures prices exhibited a trend of initially declining and then rising, supported by the continuous increase in Thai raw material prices and favorable impacts from the U.S. Supreme Court ruling against Trump's tariff policy, leading to a bullish sentiment in the overseas natural rubber market. The short-term outlook for natural rubber is expected to show a strong oscillating trend within a range, while macroeconomic changes may increase price volatility [3][6][8]. Price Trends - Overseas natural rubber futures prices showed a decline followed by an increase during the Spring Festival holiday, with the last trading day settlement price for the Singapore TSR20 main contract at 194.4 cents/kg, up 2.2 cents/kg (1.14%) from the last trading day before the holiday. The Japanese rubber main contract closed at 356.4 yen/kg, up 9.3 yen/kg (2.68%) [3][4][14]. - Thai raw material purchase prices continued to rise during the holiday, with the price for latex at 66 THB/kg, up 3.7 THB/kg (5.94%), and cup rubber at 57.5 THB/kg, up 1.8 THB/kg (3.23%) as of February 23 [4][15]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global natural rubber production is in a low production season, particularly in Thailand and Vietnam, leading to limited raw material output. This situation, combined with rubber processing factories hoarding stock, has supported raw material purchase prices [4][15]. - In January 2026, Thailand's natural rubber export volume was 371,100 tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons (16.51%) month-on-month and a 7.43% year-on-year decline, which is bullish for prices [3]. Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling against Trump's tariff policy initially boosted market sentiment, but President Trump subsequently signed an executive order to impose a 10% tariff on goods from all countries, which may lead to increased market volatility and affect natural rubber futures prices [6][17]. - China will implement zero tariffs on imports from 53 African countries starting May 1, which may lower import costs and increase the supply of African rubber, potentially exerting downward pressure on rubber prices [7][18]. Short-term Market Outlook - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend in the short term, supported by high raw material prices and recovering demand as downstream enterprises resume operations. However, macroeconomic sentiment and external policy changes will play a crucial role in influencing market dynamics [8][19].