兴业证券：建议重视2026年服务消费元年 全年维度布局通胀预期修复与细分景气两条主线

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities emphasizes that boosting domestic demand will be a key focus for economic development in 2026, with significant potential for growth in consumer services compared to overseas markets, supported by improved policies on consumption subsidies [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The service consumption sector is expected to become a new focal point for the country, with monetary, temporal, and supply-side constraints providing strong policy support [1] - The report suggests that the allocation of funds in the sector is at a historical low, and overall valuations have already reflected many pessimistic expectations [1] - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for service consumption, with policies gradually aligning with residents' income expectations, leading to a recovery in inflation expectations and sector-specific prosperity [1] Group 2: Key Investment Themes - Mainline theme of cyclical recovery includes high-end recovery and a new duty-free cycle driven by increasing policies, a turning point in hotel supply-demand balance, and improved CPI expectations reflected in restaurant same-store performance [1] - The secondary theme focuses on specific sectors benefiting from stable employment policies, including public examinations and vocational education, silver-haired tourism, innovative tea drinks, and advancements in new technologies and AI applications [1] Group 3: Holiday Performance Insights - The report highlights that the high consumer activity during the Spring Festival has positively impacted the performance of chain consumption and travel leaders in Hong Kong and the US stock markets, with some undervalued education stocks experiencing a rebound due to liquidity recovery [1] - The duty-free sector, which had high pre-holiday expectations, saw some corrections before the holiday [1] Group 4: Travel and Tourism Data - During the Spring Festival, cross-regional personnel flow in China increased by 9.6% year-on-year, with railway and civil aviation passenger flow growing by 11.3% and 7.7%, respectively [2] - The longest Spring Festival holiday historically has driven significant growth in mid-to-long-distance travel, with waterway passenger traffic increasing by 29.8% [2] - Daily average inbound and outbound travel during the Spring Festival reached 1.977 million, a 10.1% increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 5: Subsector Performance - The hotel industry saw a 30.7% year-on-year increase in REVPAR during the Spring Festival week, with occupancy rates up by 8.1% and average daily rates up by 13.5% [3] - Duty-free shopping in Hainan during the holiday period reached 1.38 billion yuan, with a 19% increase in spending and a 24.6% increase in visitors compared to the previous year [3] - Local retail and dining sales during the first four days of the holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a ramp-up in local consumption [3]