2026年1月中国金融市场：开年金融指数双增，股强债弱成鲜明特征

Core Viewpoint - The financial market index showed a positive start in January 2026, increasing from 133.0 to 136.4 year-on-year, and from 134.7 to 136.4 month-on-month, driven by multiple positive signals including loose monetary policy, debt reduction efforts, and the attractiveness of RMB assets amid geopolitical tensions [1][15]. Group 1: Stock Market - The stock market financial index rose from 22.7 to 25.3 from January 2025 to January 2026, reflecting an 11% year-on-year increase and a 2% month-on-month increase, driven by domestic funds, policy support, and the safe-haven appeal of RMB assets [4][19]. - The asset management industry, with a scale of nearly 185 trillion, and the return of cross-border ETFs contributed to the influx of capital into the stock market [19]. - The strong performance of the RMB against the USD, nearing 6.9, and a 4% risk premium in the Chinese stock market enhanced the attractiveness of RMB assets, leading to continued foreign capital inflow [5][19]. Group 2: Macro-Leverage Financial Market - The macro-leverage financial market index increased from 19.6 to 25.9, a 32% year-on-year rise and a 2% month-on-month increase, driven by policy-driven investment expansion and passive leverage increase due to insufficient demand [6][20]. - The macro leverage ratio reached 302.4% by the end of 2025, with a passive increase of 11.7 percentage points throughout the year [20]. Group 3: Banking and Credit Financial Market - The banking and credit financial market index rose from 18.3 to 20.4, an 11% year-on-year increase, but a slight 1% month-on-month decrease, reflecting stable policy support amid weak real demand [7][21]. - The growth in bank wealth management scale by 11.15% and the optimization of assets through debt reduction in key provinces supported credit expansion [21]. Group 4: Currency and Interbank Market - The currency and interbank market financial index surged from 22.7 to 28.3, a 25% year-on-year increase and an 8% month-on-month increase, due to loose monetary policy and abundant liquidity [9][23]. - The narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the US, along with a weak CPI/PPI, provided ample space for the central bank to maintain a loose policy [23]. Group 5: Non-Traditional Banking Market - The non-traditional banking financial market index rose from 17.2 to 21.8, a 26% year-on-year increase and a 2.3% month-on-month increase, driven by industry clearing and asset management expansion [10][24]. - The exit of over 700 institutions from the market improved the industry ecosystem, while the asset management sector experienced explosive growth across various funds [24]. Group 6: Bond Market - The bond market financial index fell significantly from 32.4 to 14.8, a 54% year-on-year decline and an 11% month-on-month decline, due to supply-demand imbalances and credit risks [11][24]. - The expectation of increased issuance of long-term special government bonds and local special bonds during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period contributed to the supply pressure reflected in the market [12][24].