国际能源署：全球市场石油供应短期承压

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency's February report indicates a significant decline in global oil supply due to geopolitical tensions, extreme weather, and reduced exports from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela, leading to a rise in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $70 per barrel, the highest since September 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Global Oil Supply and Prices - In January, global oil supply decreased by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 106.6 million bpd, influenced by geopolitical tensions and extreme weather conditions [1]. - The geopolitical tensions between Iran and the U.S. have contributed to rising oil prices, with prices experiencing fluctuations based on developments in negotiations [1]. - Russia's oil supply fell by 350,000 bpd in January, primarily due to increased sanctions from the U.S. and EU, leading to a significant drop in imports from India [2]. Group 2: Oil Production and Refining - Global refinery crude processing dropped from a record 86.3 million bpd in December to 85.7 million bpd in January due to seasonal maintenance and declining refining margins [3]. - The report anticipates a strong rebound in global oil supply in 2026, with an expected increase of 2.4 million bpd, reaching 108.6 million bpd, driven by both OPEC and non-OPEC producers [4]. - The average global crude processing volume is projected to increase by 790,000 bpd in 2026, primarily driven by non-OECD countries [4]. Group 3: Oil Demand and Inventory - The global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 has been slightly adjusted down to 850,000 bpd, with China expected to contribute approximately 200,000 bpd to this increase [5]. - Global oil inventories rose by 37 million barrels in December 2025, reaching a historical high of 477 million barrels, indicating a supply surplus over demand [5].