一周观市|光大保德信基金：全球风险偏好走强，有望推动A股重新积蓄力量

Market Overview - The equity market experienced a general rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.4%, the Shenzhen Index by 1.4%, the CSI 300 by 0.4%, the ChiNext Index by 1.2%, and the STAR 50 by 3.4% [1][14] - The bond market also saw gains, with the 10-year government bond yield closing at approximately 1.79%, down about 2 basis points [1][14] Industry Performance - In the Shenwan first-level industry classification, the comprehensive, computer, and electronics sectors showed significant gains, while the textile and apparel, food and beverage, and beauty care sectors experienced notable declines [2][16] Economic Events - During the Spring Festival period from February 16-20, global major stock indices mostly rose, driven by easing concerns over AI's disruptive impact, strong European corporate earnings, and a U.S. Supreme Court ruling invalidating tariffs, which boosted overall market risk appetite [3][17] - The KOSPI led the gains with a rise of 5.5%, followed by European indices such as France's CAC40 and the UK's FTSE 100, which rose by 2.5% and 2.3% respectively [3][17] - The U.S. stock market lagged behind due to a retreat in interest rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 increasing by 1.5% and 1.1% respectively [3][17] Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. bond market showed a mixed performance, with yields rising across all maturities due to a hawkish stance from Federal Reserve officials, while non-U.S. long-term bond yields generally declined [4][18] - The 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields increased by 7.1 basis points, 3.4 basis points, and 2.9 basis points respectively [4][18] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market saw widespread increases, particularly in oil prices, which surged over 4% on February 18, with a cumulative increase of nearly 6% during the Spring Festival week [5][18] - Precious metals also rose, with London silver and gold prices increasing by 9.34% and 1.30% respectively [5][18] Real Estate Market Insights - The Spring Festival period in 2026 saw a significant increase in travel activity, with daily migration indices reaching a historical high of 871.44, marking a 27% increase from 2025 and a 39% increase from 2024 [6][19] - New housing transactions doubled year-on-year during the Spring Festival, with a total area of 5.18 million square meters sold in 13 cities, although this was largely due to a low base effect from 2025 [7][20] Market Outlook - The equity strategy remains optimistic about the technology sector's growth potential, with global risk appetite strengthening and many non-U.S. assets continuing a bullish trend [8][21] - The bond strategy suggests a "barbell" approach, focusing on the favorable supply-demand dynamics in the bond market, with expectations of continued liquidity support from the central bank [10][23]