智通财经网·2026-02-25 07:07Core Insights - The core variable for lithium battery demand assessment in 2026/2027 is the installed capacity of large-scale energy storage in China, which requires continuous observation of three indicators: regional coal power capacity pricing, the scale of energy storage project lists, and spot market price differentials [1] Group 1: Investment Principles - The release of Document No. 114 has accelerated the alignment of profitability models for energy storage projects, emphasizing the need for investment operators to carefully evaluate the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) of projects beyond just capacity pricing [1][2] - A capital IRR of 6.5% is used as a benchmark for assessing the investment value of energy storage projects, influenced by four key indicators: capacity pricing, spot market arbitrage price differentials, energy storage EPC costs, and the lifespan and cycle count of energy storage stations [2] Group 2: Financial Metrics - Under basic scenarios, the capital IRR for energy storage stations is estimated at 5.5%. If the coal power capacity price is set at 165 RMB/kW·year, the spot market arbitrage price differential reaching 0.36 RMB/kWh could push the IRR above 6.5%. A capacity price of 330 RMB/kW·year could result in an IRR of 15.4% [3] - The spot market arbitrage price differential is a critical factor affecting IRR; a 0.01 RMB/kWh increase in the differential could raise the project IRR by 1.4 percentage points, while increasing the daily full charge and discharge frequency by 0.1 could enhance the IRR by 4.4 percentage points [3] Group 3: Regional Analysis - In regions with continuous spot market operations in 2025, provinces such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, and Gansu have capital IRRs exceeding 6.5%. Other provinces like Hainan, Jiangxi, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Yunnan, and Hebei also show IRRs above this threshold based on short-term data since the spot market's inception [4] - Key factors to monitor include monthly changes in electricity spot market price differentials across provinces, the pricing of coal power capacity in 2026, and fluctuations in raw material prices such as lithium carbonate [4]