长安期货屈亚娟：矿端供应略收紧&纯镍库存仍较高 镍价或偏强震荡

Group 1: Nickel Price Trends - Nickel prices experienced a rapid decline at the end of January and early February, with LME nickel dropping to around 16,500 and Shanghai nickel falling to approximately 130,000, but have since stabilized and recovered more than half of the losses [3][17]. Group 2: Nickel Ore Supply Dynamics - Indonesia is set to reduce nickel ore quotas, with approximately 260-270 million tons approved for mining by 2026, slightly above market expectations but significantly below the 2025 target of 379 million tons [4][18]. - The world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay, is expected to see a substantial reduction in production quotas, with the approved ore production quota for this year at 12 million tons, far below the 42 million tons target for 2025 [4][18]. - Nickel Industries' Hengjaya mine has had its sales quota for 2026 significantly increased from 9 million wet tons to 14.3 million wet tons [4][18]. Group 3: Nickel Iron Production and Pricing - In January, nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia totaled 165,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.5% [7][21]. - The domestic high nickel pig iron price remains stable to slightly strong, with prices around 1,035-1,060 CNY per nickel, while Indonesian nickel pig iron FOB prices are stable at 133 USD per nickel [7][21]. Group 4: Refined Nickel Supply Situation - In January, domestic refined nickel production in China was 35,225 tons, an increase of 4.9% year-on-year, with high inventories putting pressure on nickel prices [9][23]. - The total nickel inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached a new high of 58,775 tons as of February 13, indicating a generally oversupplied market [9][23]. Group 5: Demand Recovery Outlook - In January, domestic production of 300 series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a 6.3% increase month-on-month and an 18.6% increase year-on-year, but February production is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival [11][25]. - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has stabilized after a decline, with a recent price of 32,175 CNY per ton, while the production of downstream precursor plants has not yet resumed [11][25]. Group 6: Summary of Market Conditions - The overall market sentiment for precious metals and non-ferrous metals is warming, which may support a rebound in nickel prices, although a strong dollar may exert some pressure [13][27]. - The geopolitical landscape and the ongoing supply chain disruptions are likely to maintain the strategic value of key raw materials, with short-term nickel ore supply appearing slightly tight [13][27].