养殖ETF（159865）收涨超1.4%，长期看生猪产能去化预计持续

Core Viewpoint - The livestock ETF (159865) has risen over 1.4%, with expectations of continued pig production capacity reduction in the long term, which may drive up the long-term price of pork [1] Group 1: Pig Farming Sector - Long-term low pig prices combined with capacity regulation policies are expected to lead to ongoing industry capacity reduction, potentially pushing the long-term price of pork higher [1] - The current situation indicates that the pig farming sector is undergoing structural changes that may benefit prices in the future [1] Group 2: Poultry Sector - In the poultry sector, the price of white feather chick seedlings has increased due to limited supply post-Spring Festival and active replenishment by farmers; however, the price of broilers remains stable [1] - Restrictions on overseas breeding are likely to lead to a contraction in upstream capacity for white chickens [1] - The egg market is experiencing weak trading post-holiday, with egg prices under pressure; however, the impact of avian influenza abroad is causing disruptions in the import of grandparent stock, leading to a scarcity of quality breeding sources, which may drive prices up in the long term [1] Group 3: Cattle and Dairy Sector - The price of beef cattle remained stable during the Spring Festival, with a gradual reduction in the number of breeding cows expected to lead to a decrease in market supply, anticipating a price increase cycle for beef from 2026 to 2027 [1] - Raw milk prices are currently at the bottom of the cycle, with ongoing capacity reduction expected; as supply contracts, raw milk prices are anticipated to stabilize and recover by 2026 [1] Group 4: Livestock ETF Overview - The livestock ETF (159865) tracks the CSI Livestock Index (930707), which selects listed companies involved in livestock feed, breeding, vaccines, and veterinary drugs from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets to reflect the overall performance of the livestock industry [1] - This index covers the entire upstream and downstream supply chain of the livestock industry, demonstrating strong industry representativeness [1]