甲醇：强地缘弱现实博弈，上下两难？

Supply - Domestic production is at a high level, with plans for the restart of some gas head units in the southwest in February, and a slight increase in operating rates is expected [5][17] - Overseas, Iran's two 1.65 million ton methanol plants at ZPC have restarted in February, maintaining 70% capacity; additional plants KIMIYA and SABALAN are also expected to restart soon, potentially leading to an earlier-than-usual return of imports [5][17] Demand - Overall profits in downstream sectors are poor, limiting the potential for demand growth; traditional downstream operations are gradually resuming after the holiday, but the low profitability constrains demand [6][18] Inventory - Coastal regions are maintaining high inventory levels; despite low methanol import volumes at the end of February and early March, the likelihood of significant inventory reduction in March has decreased due to the anticipated early restart of Iranian plants, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [7][19] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran are characterized by the US urging Iran to abandon its nuclear program while simultaneously deploying military assets to the region, creating uncertainty that supports market prices [4][16] Market Outlook - Methanol prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, which provide a certain premium, while high coastal inventories, early restarts of Iranian plants, and low downstream operating rates continue to exert pressure on supply and demand; short-term fluctuations are expected, with a need to monitor geopolitical developments and changes in methanol supply and demand [8][20]