光大期货0225热点追踪：节后碳酸锂持续反弹，关注去库持续性

Core Viewpoint - After the Spring Festival, lithium carbonate prices have continued to rebound, driven by downstream production expectations and rumors of exports from Africa, with prices rising over 10% yesterday and continuing to increase today with a maximum intraday increase of over 5% [3][7] Supply Side - In February, lithium carbonate production is expected to decrease by 16.3% month-on-month to 81,930 tons, with declines in all raw materials for lithium extraction [4][8] - The weekly social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,019 tons to 105,463 tons, with downstream inventory increasing by 3,058 tons to 43,657 tons, while other segments decreased by 4,430 tons to 43,450 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 647 tons to 18,356 tons [4][8] Demand Side - In February, the production of ternary materials is expected to decrease by 14.6% month-on-month to 69,250 tons, and lithium iron phosphate production is expected to decrease by 10.7% month-on-month to 354,000 tons [4][8] Inventory Dynamics - The ongoing destocking pattern is expected to continue to support market trends in the short term, although there are concerns about significant supply pressure from the increased shipping data from January, which may not be sustainable [4][8] Market Developments - PLS announced plans to restart the Ngungaju lithium mine plant in Western Australia in July, with an annual capacity of approximately 200,000 tons, currently preparing for a four-month resumption [3][7] - Reports indicate that the U.S. government is considering imposing new tariffs on about six industries under the guise of "national security," which may include large batteries, cast iron and iron parts, plastic pipes, industrial chemicals, and equipment for power grids and telecommunications [3][7]