宁证期货：关注美国关税及地缘扰动 黄金中期或依然高位震荡

Macro Messages - China's physical gold demand has significantly increased, with the central bank restarting gold purchases from November 2024, marking a continuous increase for fifteen months [1] - The U.S. debt issues have led to cracks in the dollar's monetary credibility, highlighting gold's de-dollarization attributes amid the ongoing de-dollarization process [1] - The logic driving the current gold price increase remains unchanged, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment being potential short-term disturbances; the Fed is expected to focus more on employment stability while managing inflation, with a rate cut cycle anticipated to begin in September 2025 after three cuts [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including the lack of breakthroughs in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and rising concerns over U.S.-Iran conflicts, are drawing investor attention [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling invalidating IEEPA tariffs has led to uncertainty as Trump invokes the 1974 Trade Act to impose a 15% tariff, highlighting internal inconsistencies regarding tariffs [1] Institutional Views - Federal Reserve Governor Cook indicated that AI has triggered generational changes in the U.S. labor market, potentially leading to higher unemployment rates; the Fed may struggle to respond with rate cuts, creating a dilemma as rate cuts may not effectively address structural unemployment and could exacerbate inflation [1] - Both Fed Governor Cook and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee noted that rate cuts alone cannot resolve all issues, leading to a reduction in market expectations for rate cuts [1] - There is insufficient momentum for further gold price increases, with attention on U.S. tariffs and geopolitical disturbances; gold is likely to remain in a high-level consolidation phase in the medium term [1]