Ju Chao Zi Xun·2026-02-25 08:27Core Viewpoint - The MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) market is experiencing a significant shift, driven by a surge in AI demand and supply chain restructuring, particularly due to restrictions on Japanese suppliers like TDK, which opens opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [2][6][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The passive component sector, particularly MLCC, has seen a price increase of nearly 20% due to rising demand from AI applications, with major players like Murata considering price hikes [2][3]. - AI servers require significantly more MLCCs compared to traditional servers, with demand for AI servers reaching approximately 20,000 MLCCs per unit, compared to 2,200 for general servers [3]. - The high-end MLCC market is characterized by a supply shortage, with major manufacturers operating at over 80% capacity, and Murata's production levels reaching 90-95% [4][5]. Group 2: Supply Chain Changes - TDK's inclusion on a watch list by the Chinese Ministry of Commerce indicates stricter controls on rare earth materials, potentially disrupting its production capabilities and creating a supply gap in the high-end MLCC market [2][6]. - The restrictions on TDK could lead to a "shortage crisis" in the automotive and industrial supply chains, especially as demand for high-end MLCCs continues to rise [6]. Group 3: Opportunities for Chinese Manufacturers - Chinese MLCC manufacturers are positioned to fill the market gap left by TDK, leveraging their access to local resources and established supply chains [8][9]. - Companies like Fenghua Advanced Technology and Sanhui Group have made significant technological advancements, enabling them to produce high-end MLCCs that meet international standards [9][10]. - The market for MLCCs is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting a global market size of 140.8 billion yuan by 2028, with Chinese market share exceeding 50% [12]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese firms transitioning from being alternative suppliers to primary providers, driven by the need for supply chain stability among clients [11][12]. - Major Chinese manufacturers are expanding their production capacities and entering global supply chains, with Fenghua Advanced Technology and Micro Capacitor Technology achieving significant market penetration [12][13]. - The technological advancements and increased production capabilities of Chinese firms are expected to enhance their market share in the high-end MLCC sector, challenging the dominance of Japanese manufacturers [9][13].