IT under pressure, energy & bank PSUs may deliver 25–30% upside: Gautam Shah

Core Viewpoint - The Nifty IT Index is experiencing structural weakness rather than cyclical downturn, with significant concerns regarding its future performance [1][15]. IT Sector Analysis - The market reacts quickly to structural disruptions, similar to the Covid crash, leading to fear-driven repricing of IT stocks [2][15]. - Key concerns include elevated valuations based on long-term growth assumptions, structural AI disruption to traditional IT services, and technical breakdowns in large and midcap IT stocks [5][15]. - The Nifty IT Index has broken crucial support at 31,000, with potential downside targets of 28,400 and 26,000 over the next 12-18 months [6][15]. - Short-term rallies in IT stocks are expected to be sold into, indicating a lack of sustained recovery [7][15]. Market Overview - The Nifty may remain range-bound due to the heavy weight of IT stocks, despite strong domestic liquidity, including ₹30,000 crore monthly SIP inflows [8][15]. - Capital is rotating towards value themes, with a preference for sectors like PSU banks, PSU energy, and metals [9][15]. Sector Preferences - Preferred sectors include PSU banks, which are seen as proxies for the India value story, and energy-linked PSUs that could benefit from rising crude oil prices [10][12][15]. - Metal stocks are projected to have a 15-20% upside, while the broader PSU basket could deliver 25-30% gains [11][15]. - Stocks with PE multiples between 8 and 20 are attracting investment flows, indicating a shift towards value investing [11][15]. Investment Strategy - The current market environment is described as "bipolar," with IT and select heavyweights underperforming while value sectors are at or near lifetime highs [14][15]. - Investors are advised to avoid bottom-fishing in structurally weak sectors and focus on areas with positive momentum, favorable valuations, and strong liquidity [14][15].