Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities projects that NetEase Cloud Music (09899) will achieve revenues of 8.479 billion, 9.116 billion, and 9.699 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028, with net profits of 2.059 billion, 2.274 billion, and 2.476 billion yuan respectively, and adjusted net profits of 2.179 billion, 2.404 billion, and 2.617 billion yuan, corresponding to adjusted P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 12 times. The company is a leading online music platform in China, with a continuous increase in paying users driving high growth in subscription revenue, and long-term operational leverage gradually releasing, enhancing profitability. Therefore, a "Buy" rating is maintained [1][8]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the revenue is expected to reach 7.759 billion yuan, primarily due to a more prudent operational strategy for social entertainment services. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 2.748 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.0%. Adjusted operating profit is estimated at 1.734 billion yuan, up 32.4% year-on-year, driven by continuous optimization of marketing expenses and content costs. Adjusted net profit is forecasted at 2.860 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.2%, with a tax expense of -678 million yuan [2][9]. - The gross margin for 2025 is expected to be 35.7%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted operating profit margin is projected at 22.34%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses of 409 million yuan. By the end of 2025, cash on hand is expected to be 12.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2% [2][9]. Revenue and Cost Structure - Revenue from the online music business in 2025 is projected to be 5.994 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.0%, with subscription revenue of 5.053 billion yuan, up 13.3% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to enhanced user experience, upgraded membership benefits, and a rich music community content, leading to an increase in monthly paying users. The company's MAU continues to grow steadily, with the DAU/MAU ratio maintained above 30%, showing steady improvement year-on-year. Other revenues from advertising and single sales are expected to total 942 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [3][11]. - On the cost side, content service costs for 2025 are projected at 3.734 billion yuan, accounting for 48.1% of revenue, while promotional and advertising expenses are estimated at 296 million yuan, reflecting a more cautious promotional strategy [3][11]. Content and AI Development - The company is expanding its music copyright content by introducing new content from K-POP labels such as RBW, StarShip, and Shofar Music, as well as works from Chinese artists like Li Jian, Zhang Yixing, Chen Chusheng, and Yi Yangqianxi. By the end of 2025, the number of registered independent musicians is expected to exceed 1 million, an increase of approximately 181,000 from the first half of 2025, with over 5.6 million music uploads, an increase of 800,000 from the first half of 2025. The company is also focusing on developing high-quality, premium music content [5][12]. - In terms of AI functionality, the company has launched several features, including "AI Singing Assistant 2.0" for one-click MV creation, "AI Shining Player" for personalized player backgrounds, and "AI Songwriting" for real-time songwriting, further enriching the music experience [5][12].