中金：预计2026年春节澳门博彩业将展现强劲的长尾需求

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC forecasts that Macau's total gaming revenue in February 2026 will be between 19.1 to 19.4 billion MOP, with an average daily gaming revenue of approximately 671 to 682 million MOP, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2-3% and a drop of 24-35% compared to February 2019 [1] Group 1: Industry Performance - As of February 2026, Macau's total gaming revenue is estimated to be around 14.3 billion MOP, with an average daily gaming revenue during the Chinese New Year period (February 16-22) projected at about 786 million MOP [1] - The Macau Tourism Board reports a 9% year-on-year increase in daily visitor numbers during the Chinese New Year holiday, reaching 105% of 2019 levels, with daily visitors from mainland China increasing by 11% and recovering to 110% of 2019 levels [1] - The peak absolute visitor count in Macau occurred on the third day of the Chinese New Year (February 19) [1] Group 2: Revenue Trends - Initial days of the Chinese New Year saw weak performance in Macau's gaming revenue, but from the fourth to the sixth day, daily gaming revenue surged to 1.2 to 1.3 billion MOP, marking a 10-15% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [2] - The report indicates that total gaming revenue trends lagged slightly behind visitor volume trends, with peak visitor numbers reached on the third day of the holiday [2] - The extended duration of the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (9 days) is expected to lead to strong tail demand in the latter part of February [2] Group 3: Market Insights - CICC's market research indicates that the average daily VIP turnover has decreased by approximately 8-10% month-on-month, while average daily mass gaming revenue has declined by about 10-12% month-on-month [2] - The VIP win rate is estimated to be around 2.6-2.9%, which is slightly below theoretical levels [2]