蔚来-SW：销量增长毛利提升

Core Viewpoint - NIO-SW is expected to show significant growth in Q4 2026, with revenue projected between 33.36 billion to 37.12 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 69.3% to 88.4% [1][2]. Financial Performance Forecast - Projected net profit for Q4 2026 is estimated to be between -1.22 billion to 2.10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 82.9% to 129.5% [1][2]. - Adjusted net profit is forecasted at 210 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of 103.2% [1][2]. Recent Seller Insights - Guosheng Securities reports that NIO-SW's Q3 delivery volume increased by 40.8% year-on-year, with revenue up by 16.7% and gross margin improving by 3.2 percentage points to 13.9% [3]. - The company anticipates a Q4 delivery volume growth of 65.1% to 72.0%, with revenue growth of 66.3% to 72.8%, and a vehicle gross margin expected around 18% [3]. New Model Launches - NIO plans to launch three new models in 2026, including the luxury flagship ES9, the five-seat SUV L80, and the five-seat ES7, which are expected to drive further sales growth [4]. Chip Development and Supply - The company has released the world model NWM, which will enhance the performance of vehicles equipped with NX9031 and NVIDIA Orin X chips [4]. - NIO's self-developed NX9031 chip will not only be used internally but also marketed to other automotive and non-automotive clients through a joint venture [4]. Market Expansion and Sales Strategy - Haitong International Securities notes that NIO achieved a revenue of 21.79 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% [5]. - The company aims for a monthly sales target of 50,000 vehicles in 2026, with plans to introduce new models and expand its self-developed chip strategy [5].