Axon Surges 16% as Blockbuster Bookings and AI Growth Silence the Bears

Core Insights - Axon Enterprise (AXON) experienced a 16% surge in premarket trading following a strong Q4 earnings report, with revenue of $796.7 million exceeding consensus estimates by 5.4% [1] - The company's annual bookings increased by 46% to $7.4 billion, with future contracted bookings reaching $14.4 billion, indicating robust revenue visibility [1] - Management provided guidance for 2026 revenue growth of 27% to 30% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5% [1] Financial Performance - Q4 revenue was reported at $796.7 million, a 38.6% year-over-year increase, surpassing the FactSet consensus of $755.6 million [1] - Non-GAAP EPS was $2.15, compared to $2.08 in the previous year, significantly above the consensus estimate of $1.67 [1] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 46% to $206.3 million, with a margin improvement to 25.9% [1] Future Outlook - Management's guidance for 2026 includes revenue growth of 27% to 30% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5% [1] - The long-term target for 2028 aims for approximately $6 billion in annual revenue and a 28% adjusted EBITDA margin [1] - The substantial backlog of future contracted bookings provides significant revenue visibility heading into 2026 and beyond [1] Market Reaction - The stock had previously declined by 22% year-to-date before the earnings report, making the positive response from investors notable [1] - Analyst consensus remains bullish, with 18 buy ratings and a consensus price target near $784 [1] - The premarket surge indicates that the earnings report met investor expectations, potentially leading to revisions in analyst targets [1]