1月泰国大米出口同比下降17.5%

Core Viewpoint - Thailand's rice export volume and value are projected to decline significantly in 2026, prompting the Thai Rice Exporters Association to revise its export targets downward, indicating a challenging market environment for Thai rice exports [1][2] Group 1: Export Volume and Value - In January 2026, Thailand's rice export volume is expected to be 530,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5% [1] - The export value for the same period is projected to be 9.707 billion Thai Baht, down 30.7% year-on-year [1] - The revised export target for 2026 is set at 7.03 million tons, an 11% decrease compared to previous estimates, with an expected export value of approximately 130 billion Thai Baht or about 4 billion USD, marking the lowest level since 2021 [1] Group 2: Currency and Pricing Impact - The Thai Rice Exporters Association urges the government to enhance currency management, suggesting a competitive exchange rate should be maintained between 33 to 34 Thai Baht per USD [1] - A 1 Thai Baht appreciation is estimated to increase the price of Thai rice by 12 to 15 USD per ton, with the current exchange rate at approximately 31 Thai Baht per USD, indicating a relatively strong Baht [1] - Compared to the same period in 2025, the price of Thai rice has increased by about 40 USD per ton, which has weakened its price competitiveness [1] Group 3: External Market Conditions - Global rice supply continues to increase, with India, the largest producer and exporter, achieving a record production of 152 million tons, significantly impacting international market prices [1] - Major competitors such as Vietnam and Pakistan have also reported good harvests, contributing to a generally loose global supply and intensifying market competition [1][2] - Industry insiders note that while Thailand's rice production is expected to increase in 2025, weak export growth may exert downward pressure on domestic rice prices [2]