RadexMarkets瑞德克斯:链上信号重置 比特币筑底反弹可期

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is currently undergoing a critical valuation correction period after experiencing significant volatility, with short-term prices constrained below the $65,000 resistance zone, but core on-chain indicators are stabilizing, hinting at a potential resurgence in spot demand [1][2] Valuation Adjustments - The market is experiencing a deep structural adjustment, with Bitcoin's market capitalization to realized value ratio (MVRV) resetting from extreme deviations to historical averages [3] - The network value has contracted significantly, with the realized market cap dropping from a peak of $1.12 trillion in November to the current $1.09 trillion, a reduction of $33 billion [3] - The restructuring of holdings is evident, particularly with the "middle-aged" chips (holding period of 3 to 6 months) now accounting for 25.9% of the market supply, providing data support for future bottom consolidation [3] Trading Dynamics - The order flow on exchanges shows a subtle shift, with overall spot trading volume declining from $7.6 billion to $6 billion, indicating a cautious sentiment among participants [2][4] - The cumulative volume delta (CVD) has improved from -$177.1 million to -$161.5 million, suggesting a reduction in aggressive sell orders, which is often a precursor to price stabilization [4] - The current market phase is characterized as "neutral defensive," where despite most holders being at a loss, there has not been a large-scale panic sell-off, allowing for price stabilization in the $62,000 to $64,000 range [4]