伍戈：谁开启周期？

Group 1 - The global manufacturing sentiment index has been on the rise since the beginning of the year, maintaining an expansionary phase for six consecutive months, which fuels market expectations for a new round of capital expenditure cycle [1][2] - Geopolitical risk indicators have significantly increased in recent years, currently second only to the periods of the two World Wars, which historically have led to global capital expenditure and economic cycles [1][2] - The expansion of capital expenditure driven by defense and technology, combined with recent U.S. Supreme Court tariff rulings, is expected to support high levels of world trade [1][6] Group 2 - The absolute demand for commodities, represented by non-ferrous metals, appears to have room for growth despite price fluctuations, with tightening supply-demand balance supporting future price trends [1][9] - The potential for a moderate downward adjustment in economic growth expectations may lead to strong external demand, significantly supporting industrial production and actual GDP in China [1][6] - The current global expansion in technology and defense spending differs from traditional consumer demand, indicating possible discrepancies between macroeconomic readings and microeconomic experiences [1][9]