ZFX山海证券:避险买盘推升金价重回5190

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has regained upward momentum due to global trade environment shocks and rising risk aversion, despite a short-term adjustment [1][3] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Following a 1.6% pullback due to profit-taking, gold prices rebounded by 1% to $5,192.68 per ounce after the U.S. implemented a 10% global import tariff [1][3] - The policy-driven risk premium is offsetting concerns over profit-taking, providing crucial support for precious metals [1][3] - The dramatic shift in trade policy is becoming a core logic for commodity pricing, with expectations of inflation rising due to potential increases in tariffs [1][3] Group 2: Geopolitical Influences - The evolving geopolitical situation, particularly the upcoming nuclear agreement negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, is heightening investor caution and increasing demand for safe-haven metals [1][3] Group 3: Other Metals Performance - The dollar index fell by 0.2%, allowing for a nearly 4% rebound in silver prices, reaching $90.55 per ounce, and a nearly 5% increase in platinum prices to $2,277.60 [2][5] - Copper prices also showed resilience, with London copper rising to $13,294.63 per ton, reflecting a broad interest in metals with both industrial and safe-haven attributes [2][5] Group 4: Interest Rate Environment - Despite the prevailing risk aversion, pressure from the interest rate environment remains significant, with expectations of "long-term high rates" persisting due to recent statements from Federal Reserve officials [2][5] - This environment typically imposes valuation limits on non-yielding assets, indicating that gold prices will continue to seek balance between risk aversion and interest rate pressures as they approach the $5,200 mark [2][5]