UBS Reiterates Neutral On Humana As Margin Visibility Remains Key Focus

Group 1 - UBS maintained a Neutral rating and a $195 price target on Humana, emphasizing the importance of sustainable margins in its Medicare Advantage (MA) business [1] - Management highlighted that long-term value calculations for MA members depend on achieving sustainable margin levels and indicated corrective actions may be taken if the upcoming rate notice does not improve or if challenges arise with new MA enrollees [1] Group 2 - Management expects greater clarity on pricing for the 2026 book of business by April or May, ahead of bid submissions in early June [2] - Humana projected a 25% membership growth for 2026, which could provide additional upside to its broader financial targets, although management prefers to assess trends through 2028 before making firm conclusions [2] Group 3 - The company has implemented measures to enhance capital efficiency, including relocating its Wisconsin and Washington entities back to Kentucky, which reduces capital requirements with support from reinsurance arrangements [3]