Visa, Mastercard Aren't The Real Casualties In Citrini's AI-Stablecoin Scenario - American Express (NYSE:AXP), Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF)

Group 1 - The core argument of Citrini Research's post is that AI agents could potentially disrupt traditional payment networks by rerouting transactions to stablecoin systems, which may eliminate interchange fees [2] - Following the release of this scenario, major companies in the payment processing sector, including Mastercard, Visa, and American Express, experienced stock declines ranging from 4% to 6% [3] - The analysis emphasizes that issuers, rather than payment networks, are the more vulnerable entities in this scenario, as the majority of interchange fees are collected by issuers and intermediaries [4] Group 2 - The economic rationale behind the shift towards stablecoins is that AI agents will prioritize cost efficiency, leading to a preference for cheaper transaction methods, which could significantly impact traditional interchange fees [5] - The transition towards software-controlled transactions is expected to reshape transaction economics, as companies explore stablecoins and alternative payment rails to achieve cost savings, particularly in low-margin sectors [6]