纽约联储：自然利率自2019年来显著抬升 政府债券吸引力下降是主因

Core Insights - The global key interest rates are rising, primarily due to the declining attractiveness of government bonds as "safe and liquid assets" [1] - The "natural rate" of interest, which reflects the equilibrium rate when the economy is fully operational and inflation is stable, has significantly increased since 2019, by approximately 1 percentage point in the US and other developed economies [1] - The decrease in demand for the safety and liquidity of government bonds may explain up to half of the increase in interest rates, as evidenced by the narrowing spreads in US corporate bonds [1] Group 1 - The natural rate is a theoretical concept but plays a crucial role in monetary policy, serving as a reference for central banks to determine whether policy rates are too tight or too loose [1] - The analysis indicates that both the US natural rate and its global counterparts have shown a clear upward trend post-COVID-19 [2] - From 1990 to 2019, a strong preference for safety and liquidity among investors led to declining yields on government bonds, which in turn lowered the natural rate [2] Group 2 - In addition to the declining attractiveness of government bonds, expectations of productivity gains from artificial intelligence are also potential factors driving the rise in the natural rate [2] - Challenges such as demographic shifts and rising military spending expectations may lead to an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio for some economies, which could be factored into market interest rate expectations [2]