地缘局势与商品周期共振 国际油价中期有望延续强势

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have continued their strong performance since the Spring Festival, with Brent crude futures experiencing the highest increase in 13 years during this period, driven primarily by geopolitical tensions rather than supply-demand fundamentals [1][2]. Geopolitical Factors - The rise in international oil prices is significantly supported by geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing situation between the U.S. and Iran, which has raised concerns about potential military conflict and supply risks [2][5]. - Analysts suggest that the geopolitical premium in the oil market is currently around $1, which could increase to $4-$5 if tensions escalate further [3][8]. Supply-Demand Dynamics - Despite a shift in the global oil market towards oversupply, with an estimated surplus of 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day expected as OPEC+ begins to increase production in 2025, the current price trends are largely influenced by geopolitical factors rather than fundamental supply-demand metrics [2][4]. - Historical data indicates that while there have been more years of price declines post-Spring Festival, the magnitude of price increases during those years has been significantly higher, suggesting a favorable risk-reward ratio for potential price increases in the near term [4][5]. Market Predictions - Short-term predictions indicate that if the U.S. and Iran reach an agreement, oil prices may face downward pressure, potentially reversing gains made during the Spring Festival. Conversely, if tensions escalate, prices could remain elevated, with Brent crude expected to trade between $70 and $75 per barrel [8]. - In the medium to long term, analysts project that oil prices could rise to the range of $75 to $80 per barrel by 2026, supported by bullish market expectations and geopolitical premiums [8].