The Market Was Not Happy About Guidance From Rexford Industrial Realty

Core Insights - Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc. (REXR) reported solid Q4 2025 results, beating consensus estimates for AFFO per share, but the guidance disappointed the market [1][11] - The guidance for full-year core FFO per share was below consensus estimates, and same-store NOI growth was slightly negative, leading to a decline in share price [2][13] Financial Performance - REXR's projected occupancy for 2025 is between 94.8% and 95.3%, which is lower than the 96.4% average achieved in 2025 [2] - Same-store NOI growth was negative, with cash NOI growth at 2.8% and overall same-store NOI up by 0.4% [22] - REXR's shares are currently trading just under $37.40, with a forward AFFO multiple around 19.4x, which is lower than peers like Terreno (TRNO) and Prologis (PLD) [9] Capital Allocation - REXR repurchased $100 million worth of shares in Q4 2025, retiring over 1% of outstanding shares, and plans to dispose of properties worth $400 to $500 million [3][20] - The capital allocation strategy of buybacks is viewed positively, especially as REXR trades at a discount [20] Leasing Activity - REXR signed over 3 million square feet of leases in Q4 2025, with net effective rent change at 22.0% and cash rent change at 9.0% [14][15] - The retention rate for leases was 61%, with a total leasing activity of 3,039,567 square feet [16] Valuation Comparison - REXR is considered to be within a favorable valuation range compared to peers, despite having more debt in its capital structure [5][9] - The difference in valuation between REXR and its peers is material, indicating that prices still matter in the investment decision [7]