“十五五”开局首月车市运行平稳出口、商用车成为重要支撑

Core Insights - The automotive market in January 2026 shows a mixed performance, with passenger vehicle sales declining while commercial vehicle exports surged significantly [1][10] - The decline in passenger vehicle sales is attributed to several factors, including changes in tax policies and the expiration of local subsidies [1][11] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) experienced a notable drop in domestic sales, but exports doubled, highlighting a shift in market dynamics [3][10] Passenger Vehicle Market - In January, passenger vehicle production and sales reached 2.062 million and 1.988 million units, respectively, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 28.4% and 30.2%, and a year-on-year decline of 4.1% and 6.8% [1] - Chinese brands sold 1.329 million passenger vehicles, accounting for 66.9% of total sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.5 percentage points [2] - Among the four main categories of passenger vehicles, only SUVs saw a slight increase in sales, while other categories experienced declines [1] New Energy Vehicle Market - NEV production and sales reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 0.1%, but month-on-month declines of 39.4% and 44.8% [3] - Domestic sales of NEVs fell to 643,000 units, a significant year-on-year drop of 18.9% [3] - Exports of NEVs reached 302,000 units, doubling year-on-year and accounting for 44.3% of total vehicle exports [4][10] Commercial Vehicle Market - The commercial vehicle market continued its recovery, with production and sales of 388,000 and 359,000 units, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 29.9% and 23.5% [5] - Heavy-duty trucks performed particularly well, with sales of 105,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 46.0% [6] Industry Dynamics - The top fifteen automotive groups sold a total of 2.192 million vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 3.8%, with a slight decrease in market concentration [7] - BYD remains the leader in NEV sales with 210,000 units, despite a year-on-year decline of 30.1% [8] - New entrants in the automotive market are rapidly gaining ground, with companies like Xiaomi and NIO showing significant growth in sales [8][9] Export Performance - Total vehicle exports reached 681,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 44.9%, with NEV exports contributing significantly to this growth [10] - Chery and Geely led the export market, with Chery exporting 119,000 units, a 47.2% increase year-on-year [10] Policy and Market Outlook - The automotive market is experiencing structural adjustments, with a focus on quality and efficiency as the industry transitions from scale expansion [11][12] - The implementation of new policies aimed at boosting consumer confidence and stabilizing demand is expected to support market recovery in the coming months [11][12]