光大期货：2月26日能源化工日报

Oil Market - On Wednesday, WTI April contract closed down by $0.21 at $65.42 per barrel, a decrease of 0.32% [2][14] - Brent April contract closed up by $0.08 at $70.85 per barrel, an increase of 0.11% [2][14] - EIA reported a significant increase in US crude oil inventory by 16 million barrels, reaching the highest level in over eight months at 435.8 million barrels [2][16] - The geopolitical situation remains tense with Iran and the US engaging in indirect negotiations, while the US has increased military presence in the Middle East [2][14] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.34% to 2943 yuan/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil dropped by 1.18% to 3436 yuan/ton [3][17] - Supply of low-sulfur fuel oil is expected to improve marginally, with Nigeria's February shipments estimated at 180,000 tons, down 200,000 tons month-on-month [3][17] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.5% to 3358 yuan/ton [5][18] - Domestic asphalt inventory levels increased to 7.87%, up 1.61% from the previous week [5][18] Rubber - The main contract for rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 210 yuan/ton to 17240 yuan/ton [6][19] - The EU passenger car market saw a 3.9% decline in sales in January 2026 [6][19] PX & PTA & MEG - TA605 closed at 5312 yuan/ton, down 0.75%, while EG2605 closed at 3747 yuan/ton, up 0.27% [7][20] - Domestic PX operating rates increased to 92%, with expectations of stronger market conditions supported by rising demand [7][21] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang were reported at 2232 yuan/ton, with CFR China prices between $267-$271 per ton [8][22] - Supply is expected to decline due to Iranian gas restrictions, while demand is anticipated to recover post-holiday [8][22] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China ranged from 6600-6700 yuan/ton, with production margins showing negative values for various production methods [9][23] - Demand recovery is slow, and market activity is low, indicating potential pressure on prices [9][23] PVC - PVC market prices remained stable, with slight increases in some regions, while supply is expected to gradually increase post-holiday [10][24] - Demand is limited due to pre-holiday stockpiling, leading to a forecast of price stability [10][24] Urea - Urea market prices showed strength, with increases of 10-30 yuan/ton in some regions, while supply levels remain high [11][25] - Demand is expected to strengthen post-holiday, but high prices may limit market activity [11][25] Soda Ash - The soda ash market remained stable, with minor price adjustments, while production rates held steady [12][27] - Demand from downstream industries is weak, leading to a cautious market outlook [12][27] Glass - The glass market showed stability with slight price increases, but demand remains weak as many processing enterprises have not resumed operations [13][28] - The market is expected to face pressure until post-holiday recovery, with potential support from macroeconomic policies [13][28]