光大期货：2月26日金融日报

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most stocks rise, with Wind All A increasing by 1.05% and a trading volume of 2.48 billion [10] - The geopolitical risks remain present but have not escalated significantly during the holiday period, with the U.S. continuing to gather military forces in the Middle East [10] - The market anticipates limited impact from localized conflicts on equity markets, as the pricing has been adequately adjusted over time [10] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariff policy under IEEPA was illegal, requiring a halt and refund of tariffs, but this does not affect his ability to impose tariffs through other domestic laws [10] - Trump announced an increase in global tariffs from 10% to 15%, which may have a short-term impact on global equity markets, although the overall effect is expected to be limited [10] Sector Performance - The technology sector is expected to remain a strong theme in the first half of the year, with consumer and cyclical sectors likely to stabilize after inflation data shows significant improvement [10] - The bond market is experiencing a recovery due to ample liquidity and a weak economic recovery, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.8% [11][12] Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year, 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year government bond futures all saw declines, indicating a bearish sentiment in the bond market [11] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 4.095 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a stable liquidity environment [11] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated, with the gold-silver ratio dropping to around 58 and the platinum-palladium spread rising to approximately $511 per ounce [12] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding U.S.-Iran negotiations, are expected to keep gold prices volatile, with a recommendation for a long-term holding strategy [12]