光大期货：2月26日软商品日报

Sugar Industry - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) in India reported that as of February 14, 2025/26 crushing season, 80 sugar mills have stopped operations, leaving 454 mills still in operation, with a total cane crushed of 24,195.9 million tons and sugar production of 2,253 million tons, an increase of 275 million tons or 13.9% compared to the same period last year [2][6] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,290 to 5,380 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 20 CNY/ton for some quotes; Yunnan's prices remain stable at 5,120 to 5,180 CNY/ton, while processing sugar prices range from 5,580 to 5,800 CNY/ton, with some quotes down by 50 CNY/ton [2][6] - The raw sugar market is currently in a phase of production realization in the Northern Hemisphere, with India's latest sugar production forecast falling below 30 million tons, while the March raw sugar contract remains at low levels [2][6] - Domestic sugar crushing continues, leading to an accumulation of inventory, and after a brief post-holiday replenishment, the market is expected to remain under pressure during the consumption off-season [2][6] Cotton Industry - On Wednesday, ICE cotton prices rose by 0.92% to 66.16 cents per pound, while the main contract for Zheng cotton increased by 1.92% to 15,380 CNY/ton, with a rise in open interest by 64,057 contracts to 823,400 contracts [3][7] - The recent upward trend in U.S. cotton prices is attributed to a resonance between expectations and reality, with the USDA's February outlook forum predicting a year-on-year decline in the global and U.S. cotton stock-to-use ratio for the 2026/27 season [3][7] - Recent data shows that U.S. upland cotton net export sales exceeded 100,000 tons for the week, marking a recent high for the same period [3][7] - In the domestic market, Zheng cotton has seen consecutive increases in open interest post-holiday, driven by factors such as the upward movement of ICE cotton prices, expectations of a lower stock-to-use ratio in China, and adjustments in planting area and target price policies [3][7] - The overall outlook suggests that the resonance between domestic and international cotton prices may strengthen, with a generally bullish view on price movements in the medium to long term [4][7]