中信建投期货：2月26日工业品早报

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai closed at 103,040 yuan, while London copper was around 13,350 USD [4][18] - The macroeconomic environment is neutral, with Trump's State of the Union address providing weak guidance and a slight improvement in market risk appetite, leading to a mild depreciation of the dollar which supports copper prices [5][19] - On the fundamental side, copper warehouse receipts increased by 10,717 tons to 287,000 tons, and domestic spot copper prices fell to around -200 yuan due to pressure [6][20] - Overall, domestic downstream recovery and policy expectations are expected to support copper prices, but geopolitical tensions and tariff frictions remain, leading to expectations of high volatility in copper prices in the short term [6][20] - The reference range for today's main copper futures is set between 102,000 and 104,000 yuan per ton, with a strategy of buying on dips for long-term positions [6][20] Group 2: Aluminum Market - Overnight, alumina futures saw a slight increase, with recent bids for 10,000 tons of spot alumina from Xinjiang aluminum plants at around 2,970 yuan per ton, up 40 yuan from before the holiday [21][22] - The supply of alumina is expected to be tight in the short term due to production cuts and repairs at alumina production facilities, along with delayed new capacity in Guangxi [21][22] - The operational range for the 05 alumina contract is set between 2,750 and 2,950 yuan per ton, with a short-term bullish outlook [22] - The main aluminum futures in Shanghai are expected to trade between 23,500 and 24,500 yuan per ton, with a strategy of buying on dips [23][22] Group 3: Zinc Market - The zinc market in Shanghai showed a strong oscillation, supported by a decent performance in the US equity market, which boosted overall non-ferrous metal performance [24] - According to statistics, the weekly finished product inventory at smelters increased by 130% to 76,200 tons, indicating supply-side disturbances supporting prices [24] - The operational range for the main zinc futures is set between 24,000 and 25,500 yuan per ton, with a strategy of buying on dips [24] Group 4: Lead Market - The lead market in Shanghai showed a strong oscillation, with tight supply of lead concentrate and reduced production at smelters [25] - The operational range for the main lead futures is set between 16,500 and 17,500 yuan per ton, with a strategy of range trading [25] Group 5: Precious Metals Market - Precious metals experienced a slight pullback after a rise, influenced by Trump's State of the Union address and cautious hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials [27] - The operational ranges for precious metals are as follows: gold at 1,110-1,190 yuan per gram, silver at 21,000-23,500 yuan per kilogram, platinum at 550-600 yuan per gram, and palladium at 430-480 yuan per gram [27]