华泰期货：巴布韦锂矿遭禁运，碳酸锂震荡上行

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the lithium carbonate market is experiencing a tight supply situation, influenced by recent export bans from Zimbabwe and strong demand in the post-holiday period [3][9]. - On February 25, 2026, the main contract for lithium carbonate opened at 164,500 CNY/ton and closed at 166,480 CNY/ton, reflecting a change of 3.40% from the previous settlement price [2][7]. - The trading volume for the day was 322,727 contracts, with an open interest of 377,037 contracts, up from 365,180 contracts the previous day [2][7]. Group 2 - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, aiming to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability [3][8]. - The export ban is expected to significantly impact lithium supply in the short term, with China importing approximately 1.2 million tons of lithium ore from Zimbabwe in 2025 [3][8]. - Current spot inventory stands at 102,932 tons, with a decrease of 2,531 tons compared to the previous period, indicating a trend of inventory reduction [3][8]. Group 3 - The demand side remains strong post-holiday, and the ability of the supply side to quickly replenish will be crucial for market trends [9]. - Short-term expectations indicate that lithium carbonate will continue to experience a strong oscillating trend due to supply constraints [9].