Jin Rong Jie·2026-02-26 02:29Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the outlook for China's economy in 2026, emphasizing the need for a focus on domestic demand amidst external pressures and structural changes in the economy [2][4]. Economic Growth - In 2025, China's economy achieved a growth target of 5%, but the growth rate showed a declining trend throughout the year, with net exports contributing 32.7% to economic growth [2]. - The economic growth in 2026 is expected to be slightly lower than in 2025, with a focus on the quality and efficiency of growth [2]. Key Growth Engines - Infrastructure investment is set to lead the growth, with significant national projects accelerating due to policy support, including an increase in funding to approximately 295 billion yuan [2]. - Manufacturing investment is anticipated to recover, driven by technological innovation and the rise of new economic sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence [2]. - Export resilience is expected to continue, with a projected growth rate of around 5% in 2026, supported by diversification into emerging markets and upgrades in export products [3]. Domestic Demand Challenges - 2026 is characterized as a year of "domestic demand challenges," with weak domestic demand and insufficient internal momentum being the primary concerns [4]. - Consumer spending faces constraints from high base effects, pressure on income growth (with disposable income growth slowing to 5% in 2025), and a significant decline in real estate wealth [4]. - Retail sales growth is expected to slow to around 3%, but service consumption presents a potential growth area, with significant room for improvement compared to the U.S. [4]. Policy Adjustments - Macro policy shifts are aimed at releasing potential and enhancing efficiency rather than merely increasing stimulus [5]. - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a deficit rate of around 4%, focusing on quality and efficiency of spending [6]. - Monetary policy has shifted to include the promotion of reasonable price recovery as a key consideration, indicating a proactive approach to low inflation [6]. - Real estate policies will focus on controlling new supply, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply to stabilize the market [7].