节后金价能否持续走强 | 投研报告

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies reflect the political dynamics within the U.S. as Trump seeks to leverage tariffs as a tool for foreign economic strategy and geopolitical maneuvering, especially with the upcoming 2026 midterm elections [2] Industry Events - On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the large tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal; on February 24, the Department of Homeland Security confirmed the cessation of related import tariffs [1] - To replace the illegal tariffs, Trump signed a document on February 20 imposing a 10% tariff on goods from all countries and regions, which was later increased to 15% on February 21, based on the Trade Act of 1974 [1] Market Analysis - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by two main factors: increased market uncertainty due to the tariff policy changes, which has heightened concerns about global trade, and rising geopolitical risks, particularly regarding potential military actions against Iran [3] - As of February 24, the London spot gold price closed at $5,132 per ounce, with an intraday high of $5,250 per ounce, marking a 2.74% increase compared to pre-Spring Festival levels [2] Price Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to maintain a strong upward trend, despite the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, as the Trump administration's commitment to its economic policies remains firm [3] - However, the potential for gold prices to break previous highs is limited due to several factors: the limited impact of tariff policy changes on market sentiment, unclear Fed rate cut paths, and signs of easing U.S.-China relations [4]