1月份银行间外汇市场交投活跃

Core Viewpoint - The interbank foreign exchange market in January 2026 experienced significant trading activity, with daily average transaction volumes showing notable year-on-year and month-on-month growth, while the domestic foreign exchange spread remained positive, indicating a net selling direction for various institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - The daily average trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market reached $217.54 billion in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.50% and a month-on-month increase of 16.77% [1]. - The daily average trading volume in the RMB foreign exchange market was $163.74 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 15.63% and a month-on-month increase of 13.67% [1]. - The foreign currency market and foreign currency interest rate market also saw active trading, with daily average month-on-month growth rates exceeding 25% [1]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB to USD exchange rate continued to rise, reaching the 6.95 level by the end of January [2]. - In early January, despite a strong USD index, the RMB appreciated from around 6.9850 to 6.9650, with the CFETS RMB index reaching a nine-month high of 98.79 [2]. - By the end of January, the onshore RMB exchange rate closed at 6.9486, appreciating by 0.58% compared to the previous month [2]. Group 3: Institutional Trading Behavior - In January, the institutional trading demand in the spot market maintained a net selling direction, with an average daily net selling of $2.39 billion, a decrease of $0.94 billion from December [3]. - The market's herd effect index was 64.48, slightly down from December but above the historical average of 62.69 [3]. Group 4: Swap Points and Interest Rates - In January, swap points across all maturities declined, influenced by widening US-China interest rate differentials, with the 10-year US-China bond yield spread widening by 12 basis points to -245 basis points [4]. - The one-year swap point ended the month at -1222 basis points, down 97 basis points from the previous month, primarily driven by interest rate factors [4]. - The offshore market saw short-term swap points fluctuate slightly, while long-term points decreased marginally, with the one-year onshore and offshore swap point spread narrowing to around 65 basis points [4]. Group 5: Dollar Liquidity and Interest Rate Trends - In January, dollar liquidity in the foreign currency interest rate market tightened towards the end of the month, with the domestic and foreign interest rate spread remaining negative [5]. - The overnight financing rate (SOFR) fluctuated, starting at 3.7% and stabilizing around 3.65% before rising to 3.68% by the end of the month due to hawkish expectations following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair [5]. - The domestic overnight interbank lending rate slightly decreased from 3.6% to 3.59% at the beginning of January, before rising to 3.62% by the end of the month [5].