长江有色：高库存延续累增及多头获利了结引发震荡回落 26日镍价或下跌

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical risks, supply constraints, and demand recovery, leading to a complex trading environment for nickel futures. Group 1: Market Performance - Overnight London nickel prices rose by 0.73%, closing at $18,045 per ton, an increase of $130 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 11,886 lots [1] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 141,680 yuan per ton, with a slight increase of 0.11% [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core logic behind the rising nickel prices is the clear contraction in supply and structural recovery in demand [3] - Indonesia, the largest nickel producer, has significantly reduced its nickel ore production quota by nearly 30% for 2026, exacerbating the global raw material supply gap [3] - The rainy season in the Philippines has led to a slowdown in exports, reinforcing supply tightness expectations [3] - Demand is supported by improved profits in the stainless steel industry, leading to replenishment needs, and the continuous growth in production and sales of new energy vehicles, which boosts the demand for nickel sulfate [3] Group 3: Price Trends and Predictions - Nickel prices have entered a phase of consolidation after a significant rise, reflecting the market's digestion of previous supply-side benefits while facing high inventory realities [4] - Short-term support for prices comes from macro factors such as a weaker dollar and domestic resumption of production, but visible inventory pressure and profit-taking limit further price increases [4] - The future price trajectory will depend on the actual implementation of Indonesia's production quotas, the recovery of supply from the Philippines, and the substantial improvement in downstream demand [4]