日本央行委员：日本不再处于通缩状态 政策正常化必须审慎

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's committee member Soichiro Takata indicates that the economy is no longer in deflation, emphasizing that concerns about returning to deflation have been eliminated [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - Takata states that the path to overcoming deflation is finally taking shape, driven by domestic structural factors rather than solely relying on external cost transmission [1]. - He expresses hope for a "true dawn" for Japan's economy, suggesting that the current situation is fundamentally different from past experiences [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy - Takata advocates for a gradual increase in interest rates, noting that Japan's real short-term interest rates remain significantly negative, even after a potential rate hike in December 2025 [1]. - He warns of the risk that the Bank of Japan may fall behind the global recovery and rate hike cycle starting in 2026 [1]. Group 3: Debt and Market Stability - The need for cautious normalization of policies is emphasized, particularly regarding the pace of reducing government bond purchases [1]. - Takata highlights the risk of weak demand for ultra-long Japanese government bonds and warns of potential market volatility that could lead to dysfunction in the bond market [1]. Group 4: External Risks - He raises concerns about external risks, particularly the evolving U.S. trade policies that could heighten global risk sentiment and exacerbate currency market volatility due to diverging monetary policies between Japan and the U.S. [2]. - Takata acknowledges the moderate growth of the overseas economy but believes Japan has the foundation for endogenous inflation, suggesting that the central bank should focus more on rising prices [2].