聚丙烯：节前华南重心偏弱，节后首日扭转颓势！

Core Viewpoint - The PP market in South China is experiencing weak fluctuations due to a combination of cost support and weakening supply-demand dynamics, with a slight recovery observed post-holiday driven by high raw material prices and futures market performance [3][10][23] Supply Side Analysis - Since 2026, there has been no new capacity release, but the number of operational PP units has gradually increased in February, leading to a supply increase expectation. As of the week before the Spring Festival, only three PP units were offline in South China, with a total capacity of approximately 750,000 tons. Production increased by 5.07% week-on-week during the last week before the holiday [5][17] - Despite the increase in supply, the market remains under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels, limiting the support from the supply side [5][17] Demand Side Analysis - In early February, downstream demand was stable, with operating rates for major PP downstream sectors such as plastic weaving and injection molding remaining relatively unchanged. However, as the holiday approached, demand weakened significantly, with operating rates dropping to 28% for plastic weaving and injection molding by the second week of February [7][19] - Post-holiday, downstream factories have ample raw material and finished product inventories, leading to a cautious purchasing pace and limiting potential market price increases [19] Cost Analysis - Rising prices of crude oil and propane have significantly strengthened the cost support for PP in February. As of February 12, the cost of oil-based PP was 7,201 yuan/ton, up 3.15% from the beginning of the month, while PDH-based PP cost was 7,746 yuan/ton, up 3.47% [8][20] - The high raw material prices are expected to provide a floor for the PP market, even as downstream recovery is slow [20][21]