当90后基金经理选择了“周期投资”

Core Viewpoint - The cyclical sector, represented by non-ferrous metals, has been a standout theme in the A-share market this year, driven by a weaker dollar and marginally looser global liquidity, indicating a significant medium to long-term trend [1][11]. Group 1: Background and Market Dynamics - The evolution of investment styles in the A-share market over the past 30 years shows that cyclical fund managers have experienced fluctuations in market supply and individual fortunes, correlating with market cycles [1][11]. - In the 1990s to early 2000s, cyclical industries thrived during China's rapid economic growth, leading to a golden era for cyclical fund managers, while the rise of new industries shifted the focus towards growth-style fund managers [1][11]. - A notable trend is that most cyclical fund managers are from the 70s and early 80s, while younger managers focusing on technology and growth are predominantly from the late 80s and 90s [1][11]. Group 2: Profile of Chen Ziyang - Chen Ziyang, a rare 90s-born cyclical fund manager, has a profound understanding of cycles, having experienced both bull and bear markets since entering the industry [2][13]. - After graduating from Tsinghua University in 2017, Chen joined Great Wall Fund, initially focusing on steel and non-ferrous metals, later expanding to home appliances, construction materials, chemicals, and transportation [2][13]. - His early career coincided with the supply-side reform, witnessing significant profit expansion in the steel sector, but also the pitfalls of capacity expansion leading to industry downturns [2][13]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - Chen's investment strategy revolves around the revaluation of resource products, recovery of midstream manufacturing, and valuation repair logic, adapting to macro changes [3][14]. - For 2026, Chen maintains an optimistic outlook, citing stable economic growth and accommodative monetary and fiscal policies as supportive for equity markets [4][15]. - Specific investment opportunities identified include: 1. Non-ferrous metals: Despite significant gains in 2025, the fundamentals remain strong with no valuation bubble, particularly in small metals and precious metals due to central bank purchases and asset allocation trends [5][17]. 2. Chemical industry: With declining capital expenditures and nearing the end of new capacity investments, the industry is expected to shift from surplus to balance, presenting recovery potential [5][17]. 3. Real estate: A cautious stance is taken, recognizing structural opportunities despite overall market challenges [5][17][18]. Group 4: Investment Framework - Chen emphasizes the importance of understanding and respecting cycles, with a clear logic that profitable industries attract capital, leading to increased competition and reduced profitability, followed by necessary adjustments [8][20]. - His investment approach focuses on identifying undervalued opportunities during low ROE and PB periods, aiming for a balance between win rates and payoff [8][20]. - Chen's strategy also involves diversifying across different sectors to mitigate risks associated with single-cycle exposure, reflecting a continuous evolution in his research and investment practices [8][21].