市场充满太多“非共识”机遇！汇丰晋信基金郑小兵：做一名“安静”的泛周期猎手，重点看好航空板块

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has experienced significant price increases since 2025, making "cycles" a market focus. However, caution is advised as some popular colored metal varieties may be in the mid-to-late stages of their market cycle, indicating potential risks. Despite this, the market is presenting numerous investment opportunities through a cyclical lens [1][9]. Investment Framework - The investment strategy is supported by a four-dimensional framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trend analysis, individual stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points. This approach aims to identify high-value opportunities at the bottom of the cycle [1][12]. - The macroeconomic analysis includes a detailed outlook for 2026, highlighting the short-term downward pressure on the U.S. economy and the ongoing structural transformation in China [3][12]. - Industry comparisons focus on identifying sectors poised for upward trends that are currently undervalued, considering factors like ROE percentiles, PB percentiles, and trading crowding [3][12]. Stock Selection - Stock selection emphasizes two key criteria: sufficient safety margins and growth potential. The strategy involves setting clear price tolerance levels to manage downside risk while prioritizing companies with strong earnings elasticity [4][13]. - The investment style is characterized by a "left-side" trading approach, where purchases are made when market attention is low, and sales occur before market euphoria peaks [4][13]. Market Sentiment and Timing - The investment philosophy includes capturing value recovery during the early stages of market sentiment cycles. For instance, investments in the innovative drug sector were made when institutional holdings were at historical lows, followed by timely exits as market sentiment improved [5][14]. - The current hot market for colored metals is viewed with caution, as prices may have deviated significantly from fundamentals, suggesting a likelihood of mean reversion [6][15]. Sector Opportunities - The investment focus includes sectors like aviation, which is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to trends such as "silver-haired travel" and family tourism. Supply constraints and potential cost reductions in oil prices further support a positive outlook for aviation stocks [8][17]. - Brand consumption and manufacturing are also highlighted, with many domestic brands showing improvements in governance and efficiency. The anticipated end of the inventory cycle for overseas brands may trigger demand for Chinese supply chains and brands [8][17]. - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as a value opportunity, particularly in internet companies that possess strong safety margins and are well-positioned to benefit from advancements in AI technology [8][17].